On August 26th, Phillips, the world’s leading watch auction house (the numbers speak for themselves), announced to collectors and enthusiasts what will be the highlight of its upcoming November sale, scheduled for November 8–9.
The timepiece in question is perhaps the Holy Grail of the entire watch world: the Patek Philippe reference 1518, a historic model that, in the early 1940s, first combined the chronograph function with the allure of a perpetual calendar. Naturally, the example coming up for sale at Phillips will be crafted in the most precious metal of all: stainless steel. A mistake? Not at all. In fact, due to the necessities of World War II, much of the production was diverted to wartime efforts, and as a result, only four examples were ever delivered.
After the incredible result achieved in 2016, it is only natural to wonder what this one will fetch at auction. But what if I told you it isn’t the only Stainless Steel 1518 available right now? Indeed, Monaco Legend Group also has one on offer through a private sale.
So, what does this mean? What kind of outcome can we expect? Let’s try to find out in this article.
The two 1518 on sale, what are the differences
As mentioned, only 4 of the 281 known ref. 1518 pieces were ever produced in stainless steel, while the vast majority were made in yellow gold. It’s striking to think that in later perpetual calendar chronograph references, most notably the 2499 and the 3970, this metal was never used again.
That fact alone would be enough to underline the uniqueness of these two watches, but in this part of the article I’d like to explore their differences more closely. The example offered by Phillips is numbered 508.473, while the one from Monaco Legend Group carries the case number 508.475. In addition to the case numbers, the inside of the caseback also bears the progressive numbering of these four steel Pateks: no.1 for the Phillips watch and no.3 for the Monaco Legend example.
What makes Davide Parmegiani’s watch truly unique is that, as confirmed by the Patek archives, it was originally sold with a stainless-steel rice-grain bracelet.
Beyond these distinctions, one essential point stands out: condition. Among the four known examples, these two are preserved in the best state, a clear step above the other two.
Past prices and what to expect
Speaking of prices, let’s rewind to the 1980s, when for the “modest” sum of $4,500 you could have walked away with a steel 1518. Regardless of what the hammer will fall at today at Phillips, I can promise you that would have been a very satisfying purchase.
Fast forward to 2016, the last time a steel 1518 appeared at auction, specifically case number 1, and the final price reached a staggering CHF 11,000,000.
Now, with Phillips’ November estimate ranging between 8 and 16 million Swiss francs, and Monaco Legend’s private deal reportedly circling around €20 million (with at least a couple of slightly lower offers already turned down), the stakes have never been higher.
Here’s a bet I’m willing to make: whichever of the two sells first will set a new record for the 1518 reference, and for vintage watchmaking as a whole.
But it leaves us with one question: is it really healthy to have both examples on the market at the same time?
A similar situation in the past
Although it has never truly happened that these two such important timepieces were on the market at the same time, I looked back to see how the market has reacted in similar situations. And I found an interesting precedent, again involving Patek Philippe: two extraordinary Calatrava reference 96HU, featuring the world time movement designed by Louis Cottier.
In 2011, an Italian dealer consigned to Christie’s what was believed to be a unique example; as a result, expectations were extremely high. However, a collector in New York, while browsing the catalogue, realized he owned an identical watch. Without hesitation, he turned to Sotheby’s for an appraisal.
The watch was then sent to Geneva, where it was unveiled as a demonstration of the auction house’s strength and prestige, able to unearth in such a short time another example of what had been considered unique, the upcoming star of their next sale.
The outcome was telling: the first watch, stripped of the aura of uniqueness with which it had been presented just a month earlier, sold well below expectations, achieving CHF 411,000 instead of the roughly one million its owner had hoped for. The second watch, sold a few months later, met a similar fate, fetching only slightly less.
What I think
Honestly, when I first read that Phillips would be auctioning this “Holy Grail” in November, I was quite surprised. After 9 years, it’s striking to see two of the most important watches ever coming to market at the same time.
In the end, it all comes down to exclusivity. When a watch of such significance resurfaces after many years, it naturally draws enormous attention. Collectors from all over the world are incredibly eager, and it’s easy to expect a new record. But now that two are suddenly “available”, certainly not to ordinary mortals, what will the outcome be? Is it less desirable? It’s hard to say, but if I had to choose, I’d much rather be in the shoes of the Monaco Legend client, who will be able to set his asking price in a private deal with the benefit of knowing the Phillips result. The collector who consigned his piece to Phillips, on the other hand, might not sleep quite as soundly.
That said, let’s be honest: a watch this extraordinary will ultimately bring joy to both sides, the seller and the lucky buyer.
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